July 11, 2026: The situation in space is currently very favorable to America, with 50 and 60 Photo/Reconnaissance satellites, electronic surveillance satellites, LEO/Low Earth Orbit electronic monitoring satellites, and several other classified birds.

Closer to Earth, there are some complications as Russia jams GPS satellite receivers across most of Eastern Europe. China has openly threatened to destroy SpaceX (Starlink) satellites. In other words, Russia and China are attacking our assets in orbital space. They are doing this despite treaties they signed and agreements not to.

China has also caused congestion in orbital space by allowing satellites to explode or collide with American satellites. China has long been active in orbital space. Over a decade ago, Beidou/Compass, the Chinese version of GPS/Global Positioning System, was fully operational, providing worldwide coverage. China achieved this when it put the last two of its Beidou satellites into circular orbits at an altitude of about 21,800 kilometers, joining 22 others in similar orbits covering the entire planet, plus six more in 36,000-kilometer-high geosynchronous/Stationary orbits. The full Beidou network was open for business as a worldwide service.

People had their first experience with Beidou when the first few satellites became available to anyone with a Beidou GPS receiver. China expects Beidou to become a major competitor for the existing global navigation systems among civilian users. China aims to grab a major share of the satellite navigation market from the original American GPS system by 2030.

It has been a struggle to get Beidou operational. In 2013 China had only 14 of 35 Beidou satellites in service. This was sufficient to provide GPS-type service for all of China. It was expected that all 35 satellites, including spares, would be in service by 2019, and so it was, with a few weeks to spare.

In 2008, China decided to expand its original Beidou 1 satellite navigation system to cover the entire planet and compete with GPS, the European Galileo, and the Russian GLONASS. China has drawn on experience from the earlier Beidou 1 network to build the worldwide Beidou 2 system. Since 2000, China has launched 53 Beidou satellites, including prototypes, replacements, and various test models. The last two Beidou satellites were carried aloft by a single Long March 3B rocket. China put 30 satellites into orbit in 2019, more than any other nation. During 2019, only two satellites failed to achieve orbit, for a success rate of nearly 98 percent.

The Chinese Compass network incorporates the best features of the GLONASS and Galileo systems, as well as items planned for the next-generation American GPS satellites. With all that, no one has found a way to make a profit from a network of navigation satellites, at least not directly. There are plenty of ideas, but no one has yet turned any of those ideas into cash. Moreover, there are disputes among the Beidou, Galileo, and GLONASS organizations over who gets to use which frequencies first. Since GPS was first put into service, no one is contesting the frequencies it uses. But the three other players have some problems.

The success of the original GPS satellite navigation system has generated all this competition. But so far, these other efforts have found the work much more difficult than expected. A European consortium proceeded with Galileo despite rising costs and technical problems. Initially, Galileo was to be funded with private money. But the costs climbed beyond the most optimistic estimates of future income, so now Galileo is being funded with tax dollars, as were GPS and the competing Russian and Chinese systems.

Four of the EU/European Union Galileo navigation satellite system went live in 2016, but the full complement of 30 satellites, 24 active and six spares, will not be complete until 2020. Meanwhile, there have been some technical problems. Galileo first became operational during 2012. The plan was to have all 30 Galileo satellites operational by 2019, and that was only a year late.

Galileo emerged because Europeans didn't like being dependent on an American system and didn't believe the Russians could keep their GLONASS system viable. Galileo became operational because European nations were willing to pay for a system that anyone could use free of charge. Dual-signal, GPS and Galileo, receivers won't cost much more, maybe 20 percent more, than GPS receivers do. Having two separate sets of signals makes for more reliable and accurate receivers. Also, the way Galileo is being set up will improve reliability at higher latitudes and in built-up areas.

Russia's answer to GPS, GLONASS, was at full strength, 24 satellites, in 1996, shortly after the Cold War ended. But the end of the Cold War in 1991 meant the end of the regular financing for GLONASS. Maintaining the system required launching replacement satellites every 5-7 years. By the end of 2002, only seven GLONASS birds were still operational. However, the Russian economy recovered, providing funds for a series of launches in 2003 that increased the number of active satellites to 12. That went to 18 by the end of 2007, and Russia had 24 GLONASS satellites in orbit by 2011, with the system fully operational by 2012. As a result, GLONASS was the first real competitor for GPS. However, GLONASS was not fully operational until 2016 due to delays in building all the ground control stations.

The money for GLONASS is coming from the Russian government, which does not want to be dependent on the American-controlled GPS system. But the money is only there because of high oil prices. Most GLONASS receivers in use are actually combined GPS/GLONASS receivers. Russia will have to invest billions of dollars in GLONASS over the next few years to keep the system fully operational and then spend even more to maintain the satellite network. GLONASS is widely used in conjunction with GPS. In other words, many systems, including cell phones that already use GPS, added GLONASS and Galileo to provide better coverage and fewer instances of signal unavailability.

Beidou is a more restricted system. Services available to anyone are less accurate than those in other systems, but Beidou also has a special, more accurate system that allows military-mode texting and is only available to the Chinese and Pakistani militaries. China will try to monetize its GPS service, which really would make it unique compared to the others.